Doctrine of Unintended Consequences
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[edit] Definition
The Doctrine of Unintended Consequences is used to describe fallacious reasoning where the full consequences of an action are not considered. It is sometimes called a "Law" instead of a "Doctrine" (although it is not a law in the scientific or legal sense, but in the sense that Murphy's Law is a law), or referred to as "unforeseen" instead of "unintended." The same concept was also referred to by Frédéric Bastiat as "hidden consequences," and by economists in general as "hidden costs."
There may be unintended consequences that result in a benefit, but usually the fallacy is pointed out because of consequences which are quite negative.
Usually, the fallacy involves economic or political issues, but it can also be seen in other areas as well.
[edit] Examples
A common example of the doctrine refers to the implementation of safety measures. People tend to respond to these measures by increasing the risky behavior, or by ceasing active prevention, offsetting some, or perhaps all, of the benefits. This is known as the Peltzman Effect.
In politics, government welfare is seen as an aid to the poor. Critics of welfare cite the Doctrine of Unintended Consequences and state that the money taken by taxes to be spent on welfare would otherwise be spent or invested in the economy, creating jobs needed by the poor. Any proper evaluation of welfare would involve comparing the direct aid given to the economic costs of taxation, and a welfare proponent would need to show that the former outweighs the latter.
In their book Freakonomics, Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner argue that an unintended consequence of Roe vs. Wade was a drop in the crime rate, as children who would have been born in low socioeconomic situations (and were therefore statistically more likely to have committed crimes as they grew up) were never born at all. This means that an unintended consequence of abortion bans was increased crime, and not just directly from criminal abortion activity.
Similarly, the War on Drugs, like alcohol Prohibition before it, has resulted in greatly increased crime due to violence between criminal gangs operating in the black market. It has also resulted in increased deaths as no safety issues are considered in their manufacture, and the person taking the drugs doesn't fully know how much of the actual drug is present, leading to overdoses. Also, criminals purporting to sell an expensive drug, such as methylene-dioxy-methamphetamine (MDMA, or ecstasy), might substitute a drug such as para-methoxyamphetamine, which is cheaper to produce but more deadly.
Billy Joel's hit Only the Good Die Young initially flopped in the charts, surging to become a hit only after a Catholic Archbishop called for the song to be banned. Had the Archbishop said nothing, far fewer people would have heard the song, which was what he had intended by calling for a ban. Joel claimed to have sent a letter to the Archbishop, saying, "Thank you very much! Please ban my next record."
American society's disapproval of showing the female breast, and the controversy generated by the issue, is almost certainly what prompted Janet Jackson to arrange her "wardrobe malfunction" with Justin Timberlake at SuperBowl XXXVIII. She certainly would have known that the resulting controversy, putting her name all over the news and in internet and office discussions nationwide, could only increase the sales of her upcoming album, Damita Jo, which went on to be certified Platinum by the RIAA. So attempts at censoring female breasts resulted in one being seen by millions of Americans, in a venue where they would be less likely to be able to avoid it.
Many proponents of alternative medicine, especially Homeopathy, point out that there is no harm in trying the treatments as there are no harmful side effects. Similar claims are made by proponents of Astrology and other pseudoscience. This ignores not only the lost money spent, but also the lost time the person spends pursuing these endeavors. This lost money and time could have been spent on something that genuinely would have helped the person, or, if no such genuine aid was available, could at least have been spent on things that would have improved the person's quality of life, such as spending time with friends and family. (Furthermore, in the case of alternative medicine, the person may also choose to forego conventional medical treatment, thus decreasing his chances of coming out of the experience with his health intact.)
The doctrine can also be used nefariously to one's advantage. Many large corporations supported the Clean Air Act, with the stipulation that a "grandfather clause" be added, arguing that without one the economy would suffer greatly. This had the effect of letting them continue as they were, since their existing facilities were grandfathered, while making it more expensive for startup companies to compete, as they now had to comply with the act.
[edit] Discussion
The Doctrine of Unintended Consequences comes out as a result of ignorance or shortsightedness. In some cases, it causes a person to act in their immediate interest while harming their long-term interests. In other cases, the consequences might be to other people, or evenly spread across a large population, and therefore remain completely unseen. Many of the ideas that lead to unintended consequences are either emotionally driven, such as the desperate sick person trying Homeopathy, or driven by a strong sense of moral values, such as the War on Drugs. In either case, it can be extremely difficult to persuade the person of the unintended consequences.
